2018年风电的“确幸”与不安

曾经蛮霸的西北风正在转化为经济效益。尽管面临重重不确定因素，2018年的风电产业还是取得了不错的成绩，弃风限电持续改善、发电利用小时数也在不断增加。

1月28日国家能源局公布数据显示，2018年新增并网风电装机2059万千瓦，累计并网装机容量达到1.84亿千瓦，占全部发电装机容量的9.7%。2018年风电发电量3660亿千瓦时，占全部发电量的5.2%，比2017年提高0.4个百分点。

同期，2018年全国风电平均利用小时数2095小时，同比增加147小时;全年弃风电量277亿千瓦时，同比减少142亿千瓦时，平均弃风率7%，同比下降5个百分点，弃风限电状况明显缓解。

1.风电资产具有高投资回报属性

自2017年以来，电网企业及各方采取“政府引导+市场选择”诸多非常规手段，重点解决“三北”地区弃风、弃光等问题。采取系列措施包括：通过采取压减火电负荷、降低系统备用量、加大煤电灵活性改造、跨区现货交易、协调东部省份消纳、调峰辅助服务等方式，解决三北地区弃风限电问题，为新能源消纳腾空间。

受益于弃风限电改善，风电资产投资价值不断增强。热门地区路条费随之水涨船高。由此同时，主要运营商加紧对风资源的布局，以至于目前风电开发的成本越来越高，难度也在加大。

上市公司财务报表显示，风场毛利率在60%左右，净利率在45%以上。但补贴拖欠是行业的硬伤。

2.全国弃风率大幅改善，吉林有望解除红色预警

分区域看，2018年，全国风电平均利用小时数较高的地区是云南(2654小时)、福建(2587小时)、上海(2489小时)和四川(2333小时)。

2018年，弃风率超过8%的地区是新疆(弃风率23%、弃风电量107亿千瓦时)，甘肃(弃风率19%、弃风电量54亿千瓦时)，内蒙古(弃风率10%、弃风电量72亿千瓦时)。三省(区)弃风电量合计233亿千瓦时，占全国弃风电量的84%。

按照国家能源局风电运行监测制度，甘肃、新疆(含兵团)、吉林为红色预警区域。相比之下，三地与2017年比均有很大幅度的改善。尤其是吉林，弃风率由2017年的21%降至7%，预计2019年吉林将解除红色预警;甘肃弃风率从33%降至19%，新疆弃风率由29%降至23%。

图表：国内弃风率不断改善

3.河南新增装机最多，内蒙古特高压配套项目蓄势待发

从装机增长情况看，2018年新增并网装机最多的是河南，新增并网装机235万千瓦，这一规模接近2017年底前当地风电累计并网装机254万千瓦;位列其后的是河北、江苏、内蒙古。

图表：2018年各省新增风电装机分布

变化最大的是内蒙古。2018年内蒙古解除红色预警，可谓久旱逢甘霖，原核准的项目在补齐开工手续后多数开工建设并网。此前因红色预警暂定的项目也开工建设，此外特高压配套工程、风电供暖试点项目、市场化交易项目是内蒙古新增风电主要来源。

内蒙古自2016年以来连续三年没有新增风电指标。未来两年新增风电项目主要来自特高压配套项目和市场化项目。包括，锡盟特高压外送风电700万千瓦、鄂尔多斯上海庙至山东直流特高压配套风电380万千瓦、乌兰察布风电基地一期建设规模600万千瓦，这些项目预计将在未来两年集中并网。

4.趋势：风电开发将向三北地区转移

随着内蒙古等地区弃风率下降，风电开发的主战场将继续向内蒙古等三北区域回归。乌兰察布600万千瓦风电项目的核准正是风电开发向北方转移的开始。

乌兰察布市可再生能源资源丰富，有效风场面积占内蒙古自治区的三分之一，全年日照3200小时，被誉为“空中三峡、风电之都”，是蒙西电网与华北电网的连接地。

乌兰察布600万千瓦风电项目由国家电投内蒙古公司所属的察哈尔新能源有限公司投资建设，场址位于乌兰察布市四子王旗境内，总投资425.44亿元，规划面积3800平方公里，建设规模为600万千瓦，距离北京约250公里。其中，幸福子基地300万千瓦、红格尔子基地200万千瓦、大板梁子基地100万千瓦。项目预期送出通道跨越蒙冀，送电至京津冀地区。

相比之下，北方地区风资源仍然是南方及中东部无法相比。三北地区低于7米的资源区没有，从技术上可以达到4000小时。三北地区风电开发成本低于南方地区。如果不弃风，三北地区的风电项目将具有极高的经济性。

在弃风限电改善、竞价及平价上网等驱动下，预计风电开发向三北地区转移是确定性的趋势。我们预计2018-2020年过渡期，2021年之后风电的主战区仍是三北地区。

其一，三北地区弃风限电问题正在得到缓解，项目更加具有经济性;其二，工程造价成本低，土地资源丰富，具有规模扩张的基础;其三，三北地区环境恢复比南方地区快，黑龙江地区两年时间植被可以恢复到正常水平。其四，三北地区通道资源丰富，电网规划建设多条特高压线路近几年密集投产，提供了跨区消纳风电的技术条件。

其五，考虑2030年左右东中部火电进入退役期(50年生命周期)，装机缺口部分由新能源替代，2035年电网规划研究时必须需要考虑这一能源供需形势的变化。火电退役带来的供应缺口将由新能源补齐，新能源的主力仍在三北地区。

从3-5年的时间维度看，“三北”地区风电开发的回归将为风电装机增加带来新的空间，这是支撑行业增长的新动力。

5.竞价政策将影响行业开发节奏

竞价、平价是影响风电行业发展的主要因素，也是行业内最大的担忧。

2017年5月18日，国家能源局下发《关于2018年度风电建设管理有关要求的通知》，从2019年起，各省(自治区、直辖市)新增核准的集中式陆上风电项目和海上风电项目应全部通过竞争方式配置和确定上网电价。

竞价分配资源分两类，已经确定投资主体的竞价竞争的是争取进入地方年度开发指标，不是项目开发权;未明确业主的项目由地方政府主导测风、选址、土地规划、送出等前期工作，开发商公开竞价获得项目开发权。

竞价配置资源将发生多个变化：拿到项目不一定拿到标杆电价;竞价价格高于燃煤标杆电价部分仍然有补贴;风电标杆电价预计将逐步下调;竞价项目收益将减少。

受竞价影响，2018年各省及风电开发企业加快对风电核准力度，“抢核准、抢开工”，目的是在政策变化之前锁定项目上网电价。多个地方释放出诸多项目，同时也为未来几年风电开发打下基础。

<table style="font-size: 17px; max-width: 100%; font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei UI", "Microsoft YaHei", Arial, sans-serif; width: 676px; border-collapse: collapse; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); padding: 0px; text-align: justify; margin: 0px 0px 10px; letter-spacing: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” cellspacing=”0″ width=”426″ align=”center”>
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<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: 1pt 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-top-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; border-left-color: initial; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”45″ nowrap=””>
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<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>各省（区、市）承诺的2018年弃风率控制目标

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<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>合计

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”45″ nowrap=””>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>18426

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>0%

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>6.7%（冀北新能源平均）

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>4.2%（新能源平均）

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
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<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
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<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>0%

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<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
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<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>确保10%争取0%

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<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>4%（新能源平均）

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>0%

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>–

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>0%

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>3%

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>确保10%争取0%

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>–

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>弃电率下降1.8%，控制在2.2%

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>23%

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>0%

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>–

<td style="max-width: 100%; border-width: medium 1pt 1pt medium; border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: initial; word-break: break-all; padding: 0pt 5.4pt; margin: 0px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;” valign=”middle” width=”123″>
<p style="BOX-SIZING: border-box !important; WORD-WRAP: break-word !important; MAX-WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; PADDING-TOP: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; CLEAR: both; MIN-HEIGHT: 1em; MARGIN: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 17pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; TEXT-INDENT: 0pt”>26%

备注： 1.容量单位：万千瓦;电量单位：亿千瓦时;

2.并网容量、发电量、利用小时数来源于中电联;

3.弃风电量、弃风率来源于国家可再生能源中心、相关电网企业。数据为空白的表示不存在弃风现象。

4.各省承诺的全年弃风率控制目标为各省(区、市)在落实《解决弃水弃风弃光问题实施方案》工作方案中承诺的2018年全年弃风率控制目标，“–”表示工作方案中未提出弃风控制目标。

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